Summarizing: Despite advances, science of forecasting a tsunami is inexact

 

Ali Oncel

March 8, 2010

 

 Name of the selected paper: Despite advances, science of forecasting a tsunami is inexact

The source:  Washington Post, 2010-03-05

Type of the text: News article

 

Forecasting efforts of a Tsunami risk

 

Summary:   The warnings of a Tsunami risk, caused by an earthquake in Chile on February 27,   were timely reported, e.g., a warning for Nome city - Alaska, 24 hours later after the earthquake.   Damage caused by the Tsunami was not severe unlike to previous ones.   Forecasting for the Tsunami warning was given for the worst-case scenario; therefore, the observed damage of the Tsunami was less than expected.  However, Tsunami forecasting, a new area of science, did not work well.  The maximum value of Chile Tsunami waves caused three people to drown and more missing people, was measured as 7.7 foot by P.T.W.C.  Since observed wavelength was actually 3 feet less than expected in Hawaii, other warnings through the Pacific were lifted. One example of errant Tsunami warning, 9 feet, erred on the side of evacuation over the coastal area in Japan.  In general, a Tsunami’s wave can be small in the Pacific Ocean, but it can be magnified by shallow bays and harbours.

           

1. Definition and Part of Speech

Err on the side of something ▸ idiom:  to choose an action that may be too extreme.  If we're not sure what's needed, let's err on the side of being too prepared.  Usage notes: usually used in the form err on the side of caution: I decided to err on the side of caution and spend less than my full allowance.

Example sentences from the paper:  Jenifer Rhoades, tsunami program coordinator for the National Weather Service, said officials would rather err on the side of warning people about the worst-case scenario than play down the risk.

Own sentence:  Since the forecasting of a Tsunami hazard is a premature science, Tsunami risk is being conducted to err on the side of warning decision makers of being to prepared for the worst-case scenario.

2. Definition and Part of Speech

Dodge a bullet: ▸ idiom:   to have a narrow escape; to avoid injury or disaster Harold dodged a bullet. He got a "D" on the final exam.

Example sentenced from the paper: We dodged a bullet this time, but since tsunami science is not exact, we erred on the side of caution.

Own sentence:   

In order to dodge a bullet of a Tsunami risk, the warnings of Tsunami damage is being maximized to err on the side of decision makers to prepare the best for the possible hazard.

 

3. Definition and Part of Speech

Buoys: ▸ noun:  bright-coloured; a float attached by rope to the seabed to mark channels in a harbor or underwater hazards.

Example sentences from the paper:  If nothing else, this was a dramatic test of the Pacific tsunami warning system, which uses buoys sprinkled across the ocean to detect tsunamis in real time.

Own sentence:  

The measurement of Tsunami waves is being monitored based on the use of buoys that is a special instrument for measuring wavelength changes.

4. Definition and Part of Speech

Spared: ▸ verb (used without object):  to refrain from inflicting injury or punishment; exercise lenience or mercy.

Example sentences from the paper:  Even though Hawaii was spared, other areas might remain in danger, Nathan Becker, an oceanographer at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Honolulu, said Saturday night.

Own sentence:  

Everybody is happy to see that most of the cities were spared from the worse expectations of the Tsunami hazard.

 

 

First page of the News: Despite advances, science of forecasting a tsunami is inexact WORDS: 497   By Joel Achenbach and Rob Stein Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, February 28, 2010   Saturday was a tense day in and around the Pacific Ocean. There was a wave on the loose. It was reputed to travel at the speed of a jet airplane. Beyond that, this tsunami was a mystery. No one knew precisely how big it would be when it came ashore. So went a very long day, full of anxious waiting and much staring at a sea that did little to signal its intentions. View Only Top Items in This Story The sirens sounded at dawn in Hawaii, where more than 144,000 were told to head to higher ground. Tsunami warnings were posted from Panama to Japan, from Ecuador to New Zealand. Australia made the tsunami-warning list. So did Antarctica. Authorities told Californians to get out of the water to avoid being swept away by strong currents. The forecasts showed the waves reaching Nome, Alaska, more than 24 hours after the huge earthquake off the coast of Chile. By Saturday evening, the calamity had not materialized. Although reports were still coming in, it did not appear to have been a killer tsunami like some in the past. Jenifer Rhoades, tsunami program coordinator for the National Weather Service, said officials would rather err on the side of warning people about the worst-case scenario than play down the risk. "Forecasting tsunamis is a relatively new science. We learn a lot every time we have an event like this," she said. "We dodged a bullet this time, but since tsunami science is not exact, we erred on the side of caution." The tsunami, when it reached Easter Island on Saturday, measured only about a foot above sea level. Ditto on Tahiti. On the Marquesas Islands, it reached six feet. Talcahuano, a coastal town in Chile, reported a 7.7-foot wave. There were reports of three people drowned and more missing on the islands of Juan Fernandez, off the Chilean coast. By the time the tsunami reached Hawaii, the waves topped out at three feet, and warnings soon were lifted for most of the Pacific. Even though Hawaii was spared, other areas might remain in danger, Nathan Becker, an oceanographer at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Honolulu, said Saturday night. "It's still moving across the Pacific, and could go all the way to Japan," Becker said. "Hawaii may not be having big waves, but there might be somebody further downstream who does. Japan might, or perhaps Guam." Indeed, early Sunday, Japan was evacuating coastal areas, still fearing waves of more than 9 feet. If nothing else, this was a dramatic test of the Pacific tsunami warning system, which uses buoys sprinkled across the ocean to detect tsunamis in real time. The Indian Ocean lacks such a system, which might have minimized the casualties from the catastrophic tsunami of 2004. Even with scientific measurements, forecasts, alarms and civil defense measures, Saturday's events showed that tsunamis are unpredictable. And even if a wave is measured precisely in the open sea, its effect can be greatly magnified by shallow bays and harbors."